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The 2021 Players Championship fast approaching, the key question everyone’s asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win at TPC Sawgrass? With a tremendous, star-studded field — and with just one month until the Masters — the first big event of 2021 should be an epic ride from Thursday’s first round onward.

The storylines are plentiful this week, and the last player to win on this course — Rory McIlroy back in 2019 — leads them. McIlroy has not won since the fall of 2019, and in recent weeks, he has bemoaned a game that’s not quite sharp enough. He was at the epicenter of the 2019 Players (for his win) and the 2020 version (for his leadership through the COVID-19 shutdown). Will he be again this year?

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Joining McIlroy are a suddenly-surging Jordan Spieth (three top fives in four events) and last week’s champion (and winner of three of his last 15 events), Bryson DeChambeau. We could go on for hours about the rest of the storylines, but those are three that pop with The Players on deck.

So what is going to happen this week at TPC Sawgrass? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts.

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Winner — Patrick Cantlay (22-1): If you look at strokes gained, he’s been the best player in the world in 2021. Just like his Presidents Cup partner Xander Schauffele, Cantlay has no holes in the game. He opened with 67 last year before the whole thing got canceled. I’ve been ready to pick him for this event for about six weeks now.

Sleeper — Corey Conners (80-1): What’s not to love here? He’s been better tee to green this year than Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau and is coming off a near-miss last week at Bay Hill. You could also talk me into Sergio Garcia at 70-1 or Joaquin Niemann at 50-1, but I like Conners more at this number.

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Top 10 lock — Jon Rahm (16-1 to win): There’s no such thing as a top 10 lock at TPC Sawgrass, but Rahm nets top 10s as frequently as anybody in the world (58 in 114 official starts worldwide, 51%). He’s seventh in the world this year in strokes gained tee to green and coming in a bit under the radar (for him).

Star who definitely won’t win — Rory McIlroy: Nobody has ever successfully defended here, and every winner since 2004 (except for Tiger Woods in 2013) was a first-time champion. Combine that with his odd one-off poor round, and I don’t think the game is quite sharp enough for him to grab a second-straight Players.


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